In a post back in February 2025, I wondered whether American populists were beginning to feel betrayed (A Betrayal of Populism? The Revenge of Power). At the time, I suggested that if they were not yet feeling betrayed, perhaps the consequences of what appeared to be a power grab benefiting a new elite rather than "the People" had simply not trickled down.
Two years later, the near-record turnout and results of this
week's midterm elections suggest that something has indeed trickled down.
Americans do not vote in unusually large numbers when they feel content. They
vote when they feel something important is at stake. Whether interpreted as an
endorsement of change, a rejection of incumbents, or a demand for
accountability, the extraordinary level of participation suggests that many
voters have reached a judgment about the promises made in the name of populism.
Preliminary data indicate that more than 124 million ballots
were cast in the 2026 midterm elections, the highest raw vote total ever
recorded for a U.S. midterm election. While growth in registered voters means
the turnout rate was slightly below the record set in 2018, roughly 49 percent
of eligible voters participated, making it the second highest turnout in midterm
elections in modern American history.
The question I asked in 2025 therefore seems worth
revisiting.
My Original Post from 2025: A Betrayal of Populism? The
Revenge of Power
Two years ago, I presented a series of lectures on
populism. Since then, I have regularly received emails from attendees
saying that the series significantly helped them understand what has been and
is going on in American politics. Many of those currently in office
around the United States ran for election on a populist agenda, promising to
restore American greatness and prosperity while portraying themselves as the
champions of "the forgotten man" and of "traditional American
values.” Not being a populist myself, I have been wondering if genuine
populists are feeling betrayed.
Populism is Not an “-ism”
Because it ends with “-ism,”
[populism] is often mistaken for an ideology, a counterpart to
socialism and liberalism in competition for a coherent governing
philosophy. It is no such thing. (The Revenge of Power: How
Autocrats Are Reinventing Politics for the 21st Century, Moisés Naím)
Populism has no consistent overarching, persistent political
philosophy—and is more accurately conceived as distinct populist
movements. Populist movements are essentially reactive. When
political, economic, and social power are seen as favoring the left on the
political spectrum, populist movements emerge that tend to the right; when
political, economic, and social power are seen as tending to the right,
populist movements emerge that tend to the left.
Rather than thinking of populist movements as an ideology,
populist movements are best understood as a strategy for realigning power.
The Power Pie
Regardless of where populist movements fall on the
left-right political spectrum, they share the perception that power is a
limited resource. When I make my exceptionally delicious
made-from-scratch banana cream pie, the bigger the piece that you take, the
less pie there is for me. In the populist worldview, the same is true of
power. You can only increase your power—whether political, economic, or
social—by taking power away from me. We are, therefore, in a competition
for power.
In the populist worldview there are three groups in society
competing for power.
The People
The first group of competitors for power is the
People. The People are the true and deserving members of society.
They are seen as essentially good, moral, noble, and hardworking. The
People embody what the populists believe to be the genuine values of society,
and the People are deserving of the benefits provided by society.
But the People feel exploited, ill-used, and
victimized. Their share of political, economic, and social power is
diminished as other groups in society increase their power.
Populist movements, therefore, originate in and are shaped by grievances,
anger, and resentment and are focused on reclaiming power for the People.
Not-the-People
The second group of competitors for power is
Not-the-People. Not-the-People are interlopers. They are viewed as
essentially bad, immoral, ignoble, lazy, and even criminal. Therefore,
Not-the-People are not deserving of the benefits provided by society.
Not-the-People are believed to be destructive of the genuine values of society.
In the populist worldview.
Not-the People, however, are gaining power—and can only gain
power by taking it away from the People. In the populist worldview,
therefore, the People need to reclaim power from Not-the-People and
prevent them from achieving power in the future—and perhaps even physically
remove Not-the-People from society.
The Elite
The Elite is the third group competing for power. The
Elite make up the “ruling class” in the broadest sense and possess the lion’s
share of political, economic, and social power. The Elite are elected and
appointed government officials as well as those whose wealth or fame gains them
access to power.
The People experience the Elite as corrupt and greedy,
controlling the government and the economy, all the while enacting policies
that benefit themselves and perpetuate their power. The Elite have no
interest in meeting the needs of the People and are the source of all ills that
the People are suffering. The People therefore need to “drain the swamp”
and reclaim the power that the Elite have appropriated and abused by replacing
them with members of the People who will act in the best interests of the
People.
A Betrayal of the Movement?
Current American politics has a great deal in common with
populist movements, but there is something about current political action that
belies a claim to be furthering a genuine populist agenda.
The goal of populist movement is for the People to reclaim
power and restore the People to greatness and prosperity. This goal is
achieved in part by taking power away from Not-the-People and eliminating the
influence that Not-the-People have had on society. Efforts are clearly
being made to achieve this objective of the populist agenda.
In the populist worldview the goal of reclaiming power and
prosperity for the People also requires removing from power the Elite who are
responsible for all the ills that plague The People and replacing the Elite
with leaders who will act in the best interests of the People. It seems
that this second objective may be where the People might feel betrayed. Those
who campaigned on a populist agenda and prevailed in the election are purging
the old Elite; however, they are replacing the old Elite with a new Elite of
the extremely wealthy and the famous. This new Elite appears to be
focused primarily on increasing and consolidating their own political,
economic, and social power and are taking action to protect and advance their
own interests rather than those of the People.
Are the People feeling betrayed? If not, perhaps the
impact of this power grab hasn't trickled down yet.
Revisiting the Question after the 2026 Midterms
Looking back, the critical question was never whether the
old elite would be removed. Populist movements almost always promise that. The
more important question was what would replace it. If a movement that promises
to empower ordinary citizens instead concentrates political, economic, and
social power in the hands of a new elite, voters eventually notice. The
remarkable turnout in 2026 may suggest that many Americans have. Whether this
election marks a temporary reaction or a more enduring political realignment
remains to be seen, but it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that millions
of voters were motivated by a sense that the promises made on their behalf have
not been fulfilled.
